Quantitative Risk Assessment and Risk Tolerance

DETAILS: This assignment is focused on two topics –

• Quantitative Risk Analysis
• Risk Tolerance – As delineated by risk appetite, attitude, and thresholds.

In this assignment, you will work to assess a project scenario and apply quantitative risk analysis using the decision tree technique. In this scenario, you will be required to evaluate possible options (potential outcomes) for a scenario where Collegiate University, a Midwestern college, must make a building ADA-compliant within the next 24 months. Part of the process is to take into account probabilities and impacts of various potential outcomes and calculate the Expected Monetary Values (EMVs) for these outcomes. Once theses values are determined, you can then compare and rank them, and make a recommendation on the best way to proceed. The project scenario and decision tree document will provide you with more details and a decision tree that you can fill out and track your calculations.

You will need to use your assigned readings/videos, learning modules (particularly the “Quantitative Risk Analysis” and “Risk Tolerance” modules), and additional research as sources of information. For this assignment, please respond to all items listed

REQUIRED ACTIONS: Don’t forget that there are two parts to this assignment.

• QUANTITATIAVE RISK ANALYSIS: View the project scenario and decision tree and answer the following questions/reply to the topics:
  • Calculate the EMV for each of the four options listed in the scenario for both cost and time (actually for time, the term is not EMV since this indicates “monetary value,” but rather a “weighted sum”). You can list these calculated values in paragraph form, in a table, or feel free to mark up the decision tree provided in the scenario document, scan, and submit as part of your submission. Rank the various options Collegiate University can take based upon the EMV’s calculated and any other factors you used to rank the options.
  • Comment on the levels of risk and types of risks (cost, time, etc.) for each of the four options. What should Collegiate University Regents be aware of and be prepared (regarding risks) for each of the options?
  • State and discuss your top choice for an option on how Collegiate University should proceed and explain why. There may be more than one way to proceed, so choose what you feel is the best course of action and justify why including addressing your calculations for EMV (cost) and the weighted sum for schedule (time) as well as any other factors you used to make this determination. Include a discussion on why other options are not the best choice. Note that the EMV calculations (and weighted sums for time) are not always the sole determining factor to consider when making a choice on the options available. Many of the “clues” to what you should consider when making this determination are contained in the scenario description, so read closely. Please list any assumptions you make to help clarify and justify your response.
  • How could this same decision tree analysis process also be used for evaluating individual risks in the same manner we used for this scenario to evaluate four options (potential projects) for Collegiate University? Explain the process or use an example (i.e. evaluate a risk) to illustrate your response.
  • In the decision tree included in the scenario document, the column under “Cost/Time” lists a percentage followed by a dollar amount and then a number of months. The % is the probability of occurring, while the dollar amount is the estimated cost for that branch of the option, and the months represent the time it is estimated to complete the work. Here is a 8.5 x 11′ formatted size of the scenario description should you want to print off. This does NOT include the decision tree graphic as you will need to reference the original document for this component.
    Scenario – Letter-sized
  • • HOW YOU WILL BE GRADED FOR THIS PART OF THE ASSIGNMENT: You will be graded on this part of the assignment for the following:
      • Clearly identify and discuss why a particular option was chosen AND fully elaborate on the decision process – 25%
      • Identify why other options were not chosen and why – 25%
      • Calculate EMVs (cost) and weighted sums (time) correctly and show calculations – 25%
      • Spelling, grammar, citations, APA style for a paper. – 25%
  • RISK TOLERANCE: This component of Assignment 4.2 is designed for you to explore and discuss risk tolerance in relation to risk attitude, risk appetite, and risk thresholds.
    • How is an organization’s level of risk tolerance related to risk attitude and risk appetite? Begin your response by first defining each of these terms.
    • What are risk thresholds? How are they and can they be used to help guide risk response actions and levels? How are they related to the level of risk tolerance of an organization?
    • What is your current organization’s risk attitude and appetite?
  • Your response must be created in MS Word/Excel format. Use appropriate APA style/structure for this assignment including the use of headings, sections, references, and proper formatting for a paper. Please consult Purdue’s Online Writing Lab (OWL) website or your APA guide to assist you. See: OWL APA Style Guide for assistance.
  • Please use at least one additional reference for this assignment to support your responses outside the assigned readings/videos and supplemental materials already provided. When citing resources, don’t forget to use in-text citations and reference citations at the end using proper APA style.